According to Tike’s (Information Centre of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry) first harvest estimate, the grain harvest will reach 4.3 billion kilos this autumn. Tike’s next advance forecast will be published at the beginning of September.

The weather during the growing season has affected different crops in different ways across Finland: some have been bothered by dry conditions, while others have suffered from excessive moisture. Water shortages have adversely affected growth particularly in Southern Ostrobothnia since mid June, while Eastern Finland has, at the same time, experienced exceptionally heavy rains. Chilly conditions have slowed field crop growth in Lapland. Average growing conditions have, however, been favourable and the harvest is currently expected to produce a high yield.

Heavy rains delayed sowing in the spring, especially in Ostrobothnia and coastal areas in south-western Finland, but warm weather during the early summer helped to cancel out the late start. There have been more weeds than usual this year, especially among spring grain, but they were successfully controlled. In certain areas, the warm yet damp weather has led to an increase in disease and pests. Leaf spot and sclerotinia have been the most common plant diseases, and flea beetles and rape blossom beetles the most troublesome pests.

Grain harvest to rise to 4.3 billion kilos
If the early summer's growing conditions continue until threshing time, this autumn’s grain harvest is expected to rise to 4.3 billion kilos. Half of this, approximately 2.1 billion kilos, will be barley, about 1.2 billion kilos oats and about 0.9 billion kilos wheat. Last year’s grain harvest totalled 4.2 billion kilos. As the advance forecast is based on the situation in mid-July, conditions during the rest of the growing season and at harvest time will also affect the final autumn yield.

Second lowest rye harvest for a decade
Last autumn was rainy at the best time for winter grain sowing, so the areas under winter grain were smaller than average. This year, both rye and winter wheat yields are forecast to be about one third less than last year.

This year, the largest bread grain harvest will probably again come from spring wheat – a total of slightly over 0.7 billion kilos according to the forecast. A good harvest of mixed grain is also expected this year. The advance forecast predicts an almost fifty per cent increase on last year. This is due to both increased cultivation areas and a rise in expected average per-hectare yields.

Turnip rape harvest to exceed 100 million kilos
Growing conditions for turnip rape have been noticeably better than last year and the 2009 yield is expected to rise to about 108 million kilos. This is about 50 per cent more than in 2008, when the harvest was hampered by flea beetles. An increase of more than one-third is expected for this year’s pea crop, and the sugar beet yield is forecast to grow by about one fifth.

Background to the forecast
Harvest estimates are based on local estimates supplied by experts at ProAgria Rural Advisory Centres and reflect the situation as on 15 July. The estimates for each municipality are based on visual observations and knowledge of local conditions. The areas under cultivation are based on information supplied by farmers in their crop subsidy applications, almost all of which had been entered by 22 July 2009. The next harvest estimate, describing the situation as on 25 August, will be published in early September.

For additional information, contact
Actuary Irene Mustalahti, tel. + 358 20 77 21340
Researcher Mirva Kokkinen, tel. +358 20 77 21371
E-mail addresses are in the format forename.surname@mmmtike.